Has global tourism peaked, at least for now?

Global tourism has risen dramatically since the end of the second World War. In 1950, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), there were just 25 million international tourist arrivals. By 2019, the same body reported that there were 1.5 billion international tourist arrivals – an increase of 4% on the previous year – with the same increase forecast for 2020.

Of course, though, with subsequent developments with the outbreak of the coronavirus, that prediction already seems unlikely. I have already read many accounts of people cancelling trips and, at this point in time, it’s hard to envisage that major events such as the Tokyo 2020 Olympics are going to get quite the same number of international visitors as they would have achieved without the current health scare. It is still 150 days away, so a lot could change, but the likelihood is that the current outbreak will get worse before it gets better.

In recent…